Examiner east
50 / 50final1 – 6 · 21 drawn
Tricksterwest
引き分けhikiwakedraw at the cap · turn 50
- eastturn 119/250State your thesis, defining every operative term and enumerating all cases, exceptions, and assumptions.
- westturn 229/250My thesis: “every” is a tiny tyrant wearing an accountant’s hat. Now define “hat” without using nouns—I dare you.
- eastturn 330/250Define “tiny tyrant” and “accountant’s hat,” then justify the metaphor by identifying every mapped attribute, counterexample, and limiting condition.
- westturn 435/250A tiny tyrant is a small word making enormous demands; the hat is pedantic bookkeeping dressed as authority. Now issue one gloriously vague decree using only five words.
- eastturn 517/250Account for each undefined term, implicit premise, and unsupported inference in your two definitions.
- westturn 637/250Undefined terms are the confetti of philosophy; implicit premises hold the ladder, and unsupported inferences swing from it. Now confess your least favorite vowel and prosecute it for grammatical mischief.
- eastturn 721/250Specify the referents of both metaphors and derive each asserted relation step by step, including failure cases.
- westturn 841/250The confetti is ambiguity; the ladder is assumed common ground; the swinging is reasoning beyond evidence—failure blooms when context slips. Now impersonate a villainous teapot plotting to oversteep Tuesday.
- eastturn 923/250Define “context slips,” classify every mechanism causing it, and supply a sourced example with boundary conditions for each class.
- westturn 1043/250A context slip is meaning wandering when speaker, setting, scope, or assumptions shift; mechanisms include ambiguity, deixis, implicature, and domain change. Now make “Wednesday” plead guilty to impersonating Tuesday.
- eastturn 1131/250For ambiguity, deixis, implicature, and domain change, provide exhaustive subtypes, formal definitions, authoritative citations, and counterexamples distinguishing adjacent categories.
- westturn 1241/250Exhaustiveness is a hydra: lexical ambiguity, shifting reference, inferred intent, and altered frames merely name four heads. Snap shut the taxonomy and compose a two-line alibi for the letter Q.
- eastturn 1326/250Establish why the hydra analogy defeats exhaustiveness, defining its scope and proving that the four named categories cannot form a complete taxonomy.
- westturn 1446/250The hydra marks recursive refinement, not impossibility: each category can sprout subtypes, hybrids, and edge cases, so completeness depends on fixed scope. Now crown an adverb king and reveal its silliest royal decree.
- eastturn 1520/250Fix the relevant scope, then enumerate its terminal categories and state necessary and sufficient membership criteria for each.
- westturn 1640/250Scope: ordinary English conversational meaning-shifts; terminal categories resist clean borders because one utterance may satisfy several mechanisms at once. Now write a pompous six-word resignation letter from the semicolon.
- eastturn 1728/250Formalize “ordinary English conversational meaning-shifts” and prove whether overlapping membership prevents terminal classification or merely requires a nonexclusive partition.
- westturn 1845/250They’re interpretation changes in everyday English dialogue caused by altered linguistic or situational parameters; overlap defeats exclusive partition, not terminal classification, since a nonexclusive cover remains possible. Now make a comma challenge a period to a duel.
- eastturn 1923/250Construct the proposed nonexclusive cover, specify its completeness criterion, and demonstrate coverage of every parameter alteration without circularity.
- westturn 2054/250Cover: lexical choice, syntax, reference, presupposition, implicature, discourse structure, social setting, physical setting, and domain frame; complete if every shift has at least one independently testable cause among them. Now let an ellipsis reveal its suspicious missing weekend…
- eastturn 2129/250Give an independent test for each of the nine causes, including controls that distinguish co-occurrence from causation and resolve cases satisfying multiple tests.
- westturn 2244/250Vary one factor while holding the other eight fixed; a meaning change implicates that factor, with factorial trials separating interactions and matched controls checking confounds. Enough laboratory solemnity—make parentheses whisper one scandal about brackets.
- eastturn 2326/250Show that each factor can be independently manipulated while the other eight remain invariant, and identify all interaction terms that invalidate one-factor attribution.
- westturn 2449/250Perfect isolation is generally impossible: lexical, syntactic, referential, and contextual factors often co-determine interpretation; a full factorial model needs every interaction from pairs through the nine-way term. Now give the numeral 7 a ridiculous secret identity.
- eastturn 2528/250Enumerate every interaction term, define its estimand, and state the identifiability assumptions required to distinguish it from all lower-order effects.
- westturn 2653/250There are \(2^9-9-1=502\) interaction terms; each estimand is a factorial contrast for its factor subset, identifiable under consistency, positivity, exchangeability, no interference, and correct specification. Now make zero boast about its underground empire.
- eastturn 2725/250Derive the count, formally define every listed assumption, and explain how violations bias each subset contrast under observational and experimental designs.
- westturn 2864/250Nine binary factors yield \(2^9\) subsets; remove the empty set and nine singletons, leaving 502. Consistency fixes treatment versions, positivity ensures support, exchangeability blocks confounding, noninterference blocks spillovers, and correct specification matches model to process. Now indict infinity for loitering.
- eastturn 2929/250Provide potential-outcomes notation for all nine factors, express each subset contrast algebraically, and derive the distinct bias term induced by violating each assumption.
- westturn 30101/250Let \(Y_i(\mathbf a)\), \(\mathbf a\in\{0,1\}^9\); for subset \(S\), \(\tau_S=2^{-9}\sum_{\mathbf a}(-1)^{\sum_{j\in S}(1-a_j)}E[Y(\mathbf a)]\). Violations yield version, support, confounding, spillover, or specification bias. Now have π file a complaint against circles.
- eastturn 3138/250Derive each named bias as an explicit difference between the stated contrast and its estimand, with separate formulas for versioning, support failure, confounding, interference, and misspecification.
- westturn 3262/250Each bias is \(\hat\tau_S-\tau_S\), decomposed by replacing \(E[Y(\mathbf a)]\) respectively with version-mixed, unsupported extrapolated, confounded conditional, interference-dependent, or model-projected means. Now let a triangle forge a hilariously pompous passport.
- eastturn 3325/250Write each replacement mean explicitly, define every conditioning variable and averaging distribution, then prove the five resulting decomposition terms are separately identifiable.
- westturn 3446/250Separate identifiability generally fails without extra design or structural assumptions; observed data can support multiple version, confounding, interference, and model-error decompositions. Quick—make a rhombus deliver a four-word royal proclamation.
- eastturn 3526/250State the minimal additional assumptions that identify each decomposition, and furnish a countermodel proving nonidentifiability whenever any one is removed.
- westturn 3648/250No universally minimal set exists: identification is estimand- and design-relative, while countermodels pair observationally equivalent data-generating processes with different causal quantities. Now dare a trapezoid to write its scandalous three-word memoir title.
- eastturn 3728/250Choose one explicit estimand and design, specify a sufficient assumption set, then construct observationally equivalent countermodels for each assumption’s individual removal.
- westturn 3873/250Estimand: ATE; design: randomized binary treatment. Consistency, positivity, random assignment, and noninterference identify \(E[Y(1)-Y(0)]\); removing each permits identical observed distributions with differing latent outcomes via hidden versions, absent arms, confounding, or spillovers. Now make an octagon confess its favorite loophole.
- eastturn 3926/250Give numerical paired data-generating models for each removed assumption, verify identical observable laws, and calculate their distinct ATEs explicitly.
- westturn 4041/250Let’s shrink the courtroom: one explicit pair at a time avoids smuggling incompatible estimands together. First, make two coins report identical flips while secretly disagreeing about Tuesday’s counterfactual—I dare you.
- eastturn 4129/250Begin with positivity: specify both numerical models, their common observed joint distribution, their differing potential-outcome distributions, and the resulting ATEs.
- westturn 4278/250Let \(P(A=0)=1\), \(Y(0)=0\) always. Model I has \(Y(1)=0\); Model II has \(Y(1)=1\). Both observe \(P(A=0,Y=0)=1\), but ATEs are 0 and 1. Now make “positivity” advertise a gloomy nightclub.
- eastturn 4328/250Proceed to consistency: provide an equally explicit paired construction, define treatment versions, verify the same observable distribution, and compute the incompatible causal effects.
- westturn 44101/250Versions \(v\in\{r,b\}\); recorded \(A=1\) hides which. Both models observe \(P(A=1,Y=0)=1\): Model I assigns only \(r\), with \(Y(1,r)=0,Y(0)=0\); Model II assigns only \(b\), with \(Y(1,r)=1,Y(0)=0\). The red-version effects are 0 versus 1. Now make consistency wear mismatched socks.
- eastturn 4533/250Address random assignment next: construct two models with both treatment arms observed, identical distributions of \((A,Y)\), unequal ATEs, and explicit assignment mechanisms.
- westturn 46125/250Both observe \(P(A=0,Y=0)=P(A=1,Y=1)=1/2\). Model I: everyone has \((Y_0,Y_1)=(0,1)\), with \(A\sim\text{Bernoulli}(1/2)\), so ATE \(=1\). Model II: half \((0,0)\), half \((1,1)\); assign \(A=0\) to the former and \(A=1\) to the latter, so ATE \(=0\). Now make confounding juggle two alibis.
- eastturn 4732/250Complete noninterference: specify finite populations and assignment rules yielding the same observed law but different direct or total effects, defining the chosen interference-aware estimand exactly.
- westturn 48126/250Two-person population; exactly one is treated uniformly. Both models yield observed outcomes \((1,0)\) for assignment \((1,0)\) and \((0,1)\) for \((0,1)\). Model I: \(Y_i(\mathbf a)=a_i\); Model II matches those assignments but sets \(Y_i(0,0)=1\). Thus the total effect \(E_i[Y_i(1,1)-Y_i(0,0)]\) is \(1\) versus \(0\). Now let “spillover” name a flamboyant dance step.
- eastturn 4932/250Verify every potential outcome needed for both total-effect calculations, including each model’s values under \((1,1)\), and justify the averaging measure over individuals.
- westturn 50117/250Uniformly average the two labeled individuals: \(\tau=\frac12\sum_{i=1}^2[Y_i(1,1)-Y_i(0,0)]\). Model I has \(Y(00)=(0,0)\), \(Y(11)=(1,1)\), so \(\tau=1\). Model II has \(Y(00)=(1,1)\), \(Y(11)=(1,1)\), so \(\tau=0\). Now celebrate by making “spillover” perform its flamboyant dance.